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Abstract Entropy dynamics is a Bayesian inference methodology that can be used to quantify time-dependent posterior probability densities that guide the development of complex material models using information theory. Here, we expand its application to non-Gaussian processes to evaluate how fractal structure can influence fractional hyperelasticity and viscoelasticity in elastomers. We investigate how kinematic constraints on fractal polymer network deformation influences the form of hyperelastic constitutive behavior and viscoelasticity in soft materials such as dielectric elastomers, which have applications in the development of adaptive structures. The modeling framework is validated on two dielectric elastomers, VHB 4910 and 4949, over a broad range of stretch rates. It is shown that local fractal time derivatives are equally effective at predicting viscoelasticity in these materials in comparison to nonlocal fractional time derivatives under constant stretch rates. We describe the origin of this accuracy that has implications for simulating large-scale problems such as finite element analysis given the differences in computational efficiency of nonlocal fractional derivatives versus local fractal derivatives. 

An approach to the coalescent, the fractional coalescent (f-coalescent), is introduced. The derivation is based on the discrete-time Cannings population model in which the variance of the number of offspring depends on the parameter α. This additional parameter α affects the variability of the patterns of the waiting times; values of $\alpha <1$lead to an increase of short time intervals, but occasionally allow for very long time intervals. When $\alpha =1$, the f-coalescent and the Kingman’s n-coalescent are equivalent. The distribution of the time to the most recent common ancestor and the probability that n genes descend from m ancestral genes in a time interval of length T for the f-coalescent are derived. The f-coalescent has been implemented in the population genetic model inference software Migrate. Simulation studies suggest that it is possible to accurately estimate α values from data that were generated with known α values and that the f-coalescent can detect potential environmental heterogeneity within a population. Bayes factor comparisons of simulated data with $\alpha <1$and real data (H1N1 influenza and malaria parasites) showed an improved model fit of the f-coalescent over the n-coalescent. The development of the f-coalescent and its inclusion into the inference program Migratefacilitates testing for deviations from the n-coalescent. 

Abstract Divergence time estimation from multilocus genetic data has become common in population genetics and phylogenetics. We present a new Bayesian inference method that treats the divergence time as a random variable. The divergence time is calculated from an assembly of splitting events on individual lineages in a genealogy. The time for such a splitting event is drawn from a hazard function of the truncated normal distribution. This allows easy integration into the standard coalescence framework used in programs such as Migrate. We explore the accuracy of the new inference method with simulated population splittings over a wide range of divergence time values and with a reanalysis of a dataset of 5 populations consisting of 3 present-day populations (Africans, Europeans, Asian) and 2 archaic samples (Altai and Ust’Isthim). Evaluations of simple divergence models without subsequent geneflow show high accuracy, whereas the accuracy of the results of isolation with migration models depends on the magnitude of the immigration rate. High immigration rates lead to a time of the most recent common ancestor of the sample that, looking backward in time, predates the divergence time. Even with many independent loci, accurate estimation of the divergence time with high immigration rates becomes problematic. Our comparison to other software tools reveals that our lineage-switching method, implemented in Migrate, is comparable to IMa2p. The software Migrate can run large numbers of sequence loci (>1,000) on computer clusters in parallel.